March 2024 Portfolio Update
Topics: Quote, Portfolio & Discussion, more Earnings, Comments From Me, Interesting 13Fs*, Book + Section for Paid subscribers (including detailed portfolios, investing idea for the month, & more)
Quote for this month:
“Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.” - Bernard M. Baruch
Portfolio Update*
*I am NOT a financial advisor, I’m sharing my investing journey. Do your own research.*
Portfolio (Basic):
Portfolio Discussion
Currently the numbers as of 03/09/2024: (total) $302,275 - (other) $25,000 = (mine) 277,275.
Not much was done since last update, except of moving things around in the portfolio to try to get some cash on the sidelines and just letting companies do what they have to do…
Some more earnings:
LKQ - is slow and steady with no big surprises. LKQ is making progress in integration of Uni-Select in that way going deeper into Canada. Also with Dominick Zarcone retiring will be watching out for what the new CEO will be doing, but so far he (Justin Jude) at least to me seems like he will keep on doing what DZ already set forward. JJ has been with the company since 2004 so I think its nice that they have promotion with in the company but we will see how it goes forward…
Sprouts Farmers Market Inc - is another great company that is as they say “firing on all cylinders”. Jack Sinclair and the team are executing as they have promised and having success with smaller stores and focusing on the customers (still having Whole Food vibes and I love it) … makes me wonder why no one has put a bit to buy them out yet, but I’m not complaining and enjoying their expansion and based on the metrics company is still not that expensive.
Warner Bros. Discovery - on less positive note, at least on the stock price side … WBD earnings came out and market did not like it, I will be honest and say that I’m not 100% sure why, yes I understand that Z-man and the team are fighting an uphill battle and that NFLX is the king but numbers looked okay to me and with recent release of Dune 2 looks like WBD has found its success for this year. WBD did say they are not giving guidance and my understanding (from reading of what others have to say) that market does not like uncertainty and does not like NOT having any guidance. I see it this way 1) no guidance means things are not looking as good under the hook as the management makes it seems it is 2) because of lots of moving parts management just doesn’t want to deal with promising and then disappointing even if things are not as bad 3) potential over delivering will be a surprise and shocking market to the upside… this one I think is the least likely point but still possible … the reality is probably somewhere in the middle … I will say that I respect the way WBD handled what got thrown at it (strikes, paying down debt, keep releasing things, growing max, etc) . Real world gave WBD a certain “hand” and I think WBD did just fine with it… yet I still understand WBD is no Netflix and WBD is not trying to be so… Lastly I really hope they are not going to buy Paramount that I would really hate.
Grupo Aeroportuario Centro Norte - OMA’s earnings were okay with nothing too exciting BUT managements comments on governmental side got me thinking more negatively on the future of OMA …
Black Stone Minerals - Management has kept the dividend as expected but given that natural gas prices are around $2 and or lower I do see possibility of them lowering the dividend or cutting it out, in which case if they do I would really hope they start buying back shares … BSM for the year did $422.5 million and could probably expect to do the same amount for the next year (or so) on about $3 billion market cap with no debt and lots of locations for potential revenue.
For the past 3-6 months management has bought (on the open market) about $3 million worth of stock, you know the saying...
IAC - something something SOTP don’t work something something … Although I must agree I much more enjoy stock price movements like SFM … looking at IAC and what management is doing I understand that in real world life doesn’t always look so pretty but IAC (under the hook) is moving things around to the upside. DDM is turning around with DDM (hopefully) starting to print cash soon and I think there is something special to D/Cipher and the future of it. A quick email exchange with IAC IR confirms that. Following by ANGI that is actually printing cash, and other small bets in IAC that has potential unexpected positives. MGM gives them exposure to casinos and MGM Bets that is (MGM is returning to “normal”) expending as gambling around USA expends. Lastly TURO that is hopefully to go public this year (although not guarantee, but with Reddit going public does give hope).
It seems just too crazy for something to not work out and for AIC to be able to monetize it and in so make the stock price go up.
VieMed Health - Amazing results, although I have been questioning (in my head) their move into staffing segment … it seems like it’s working out for them
Oppfi Inc - OPFI released earnings yesterday and the stock tanked 20% , not much change was noticed (on my end) comparing to previous earnings release and it seemed to me that big negative was the fact that management commented that 2024 will be “defensive year” rather then to keep on growing , which I actually see as positive? I’m not a big fan of grow at any cost and based of the earnings call, it felt to me like management got caught of guard on comments of them playing defensive and being conservative like its a “bad thing”, I have sent out and email to OPFI IR with some questions about OPFI and earnings call so we will see if they respond, until then I’m looking to dig in into the 10K when it comes out.
Dividends for February:
Comments From Me
I have started being more “active” in emailing and/or calling IR of the companies I own with some responding to my emails and some not so much (aka ignoring) this is something new to me but as I feel like I’m getting more comfortable with knowing what I own (or as I think more broadly about companies/sectors/macro), I feel like I can ask actual questions that no one really is answering via other write ups or twitter.
Also slowly but surely starting to get ready for Berkshire - AGM, if you are planning to go this year hit me up so we can meet & chat in Omaha!
Interesting 13Fs*
Notable Investors with no change or only reduction, but no exits and no new buys:
Guy Spier - Aquamarine Capital
Francis Chou - Chou Associates
Li Lu - Himalaya Capital Management
Dennis Hong - ShawSpring Partners
Lindsell Train
Bill Ackman - Pershing Square Capital Management
Christopher Bloomstran - Semper Augustus
AltaRock Partners
Robert Vinall - RV Capital
*All the data taken from DATAROMA
Book
I realized that my descriptions of the books that I read may not always give them full credit as when I read these books and when I write about them, I only share one or two things that really stand out to me. So I have decided to also include a quick short description from Goodreads (no affiliations) so that way you get my thoughts but also more generic description to get a better feel for the books and in so hopefully adding them to your “to-read-list”.
This time around I finished one audiobook :
Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments by Michael Batnick
YZ:
It’s always great to learn from great investors (or just some famous “useful” people) and their successes but it’s also great to read (listen) to those same investor’s failures too! Michael Batnick does just that showing well known (to most) people that had successes (with moneys + in life) but also their big “losers” or unsuccessful ventures and yet at the end of the day still those same people “did well”.
To me it just shows that as long as you don’t blow up
and get to “fight another day”, you increase your chances of “getting lucky” and just plain simply get to be successful after many many failed tries.
“I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it”
Thomas Jefferson.
Goodreads:
Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments explores the ways in which the biggest names have failed, and reveals the lessons learned that shaped more successful strategies going forward. Investing can be a rollercoaster of highs and lows, and the investors detailed here show just how low it can go; stories from Warren Buffet, Bill Ackman, Chris Sacca, Jack Bogle, Mark Twain, John Maynard Keynes, and many more illustrate the simple but overlooked concept that investing is really hard, whether you're managing a few thousand dollars or a few billion, failures and losses are part of the game. Much more than just anecdotal diversion, these stories set the basis for the book's critical focus: learning from mistakes. These investors all recovered from their missteps, and moved forward armed with a wealth of knowledge than can only come from experience. Lessons learned through failure carry a weight that no textbook can convey, and in the case of these legendary investors, informed a set of skills and strategy that propelled them to the top.
I give it 4 out of 5 stars.
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IAC 0.00%↑ SFM 0.00%↑ SPOT 0.00%↑ BSM 0.00%↑ LKQ 0.00%↑ VMD 0.00%↑ PYPL 0.00%↑ EVO 0.00%↑ WBD 0.00%↑ OPFI 0.00%↑ BUR 0.00%↑ MITK 0.00%↑ OZK 0.00%↑ OMAB 0.00%↑ TCS 0.00%↑ UG 0.00%↑$EVVTY $NYDOY
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